Independent Consultant doesn't predict 3,000 jobs at Manston

Here we go again!

After a few months off, Charles Buchannan's Manston/Infratil/Maxim PR machine kicks into life! A cynic would say he was told to go away and wait until after the election before stirring up the hornets nest that is Night flights once more! .

So whats his latest offering? World peace? Cure for incurable diseases? Nope - 3,000 jobs created in 6.5 years if he is allowed night flights.

How do independent consultants York Aviation come up with such a figure? Well, they don't. This number is from Infratil's own Masterplan (2009 Remix. If you believed the 2008 version, we would be seeing 1,000,000 passengers this year).

Where does Infratil get the 3,000 figure from? A few decades ago, some independent consultants said that for each 1,000,000 passengers at an airport, 1,000 jobs are created - at the airport, around the airport, in the supply chain. The airport industry still uses this independent consultants figure today, even though most people who fly short haul use what is called "budget carriers" - not invented in, but successful in the last 20 years or so. These operators work on slim budgets and lean processes, ie, not a lot of people. So that number should have somewhat reduced over the past couple of decades or so.........

The air industry being as they are wheel this independent consultant number out as they see fit. Charlie at Manston has even busted this figure by claiming 3,105 when if he had used his calculator correctly should be quoting 2,286 jobs. (The Gazette has managed to bump this up to 3,500! Who says school standards are slipping!)

However, Chuck is not alone in using the jobs creation calculator to his own means. Here are some examples from across the UK, brilliantly summarised in this independent review of jobs promises verses jobs reality;

http://www.aef.org.uk/downloads//Airport_jobs_false_hopes_cruel_hoax_March2009_AEF.pdf

50,000 jobs promised for a new runway at Manchester. The reality was 6,400.

Luton's jobs growth over a decade was 100 jobs per million passengers, not 1,000

15,000,000 extra passengers for zero additional jobs created in Gatwicks Masterplan

Read through to get a national flavour of the smoke and mirrors created by Airport Operators independent consultants to woo the local councils into allowing more planning and less restrictions as they think of the millions of jobs Airports will create in their fantasy land.

Something a bit more relevant and closer to home is Manstons (ugly) sister airport, Prestwick. Check out this story in the scottish press from earlier in the month;

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/business/analysis/coming-to-the-end-of-the-runway-1.1100179

Some highlights;

According to Louise Congdon, managing partner at leading consultancy York Aviation, Prestwick’s troubles are typical. “With the possible exception of Heathrow, all airports are suffering high amounts of pain,” she says. “The ones that are hurting most are the ones that were growing the most. The traditional rule of thumb is that airports could make money at one million passengers per annum. But the budget operators’ model has pushed that up to the two million mark. Foreign operators that came into the market in the past 10 years didn’t always see that coming."

You may recognise the independent consultant making these gloomy comments about airport profitability and outlook - York Aviation! And who is that final sentence pointed at?!?!

Feel free to make your own mind up on what you think this will mean for Manston's prospects up to 2018, but when Infratil have been here for nearly 6 years and had 30,000 passengers last year, are they really likely to conjour up another 2,500,000 over the next 6?

If this is Manstons best argument for allowing night flights, I think they've got some work to do with some independent consultants!

(Please note this posting has been created with the assistance of an Independent Consultant)